2.26.2009

How Scary? Faith of a different order





Times are tough, more choppy water ahead.

My crystal ball was knocked off the shelf by a poltergeist, an' every splinter of the busted thang shows a different "future."

Meanin' --of course--that I ain't no smarter than the next opinionator when it comes to weighing what lies ahead for the economy.

What I has seen is a LOT of stuff on the Internet that scares hair off a gorilla. But some of it over-reaches.

Here is one of them: http://www.dieoff.org/BigPicture.pdf

This is a clever site, set up like Dick & Jane to explain all our basic pillars that are fallin' down--this one is BIG OIL.

The gist of the cartoon primer (very effective format --I like it!) is that the earth is finite and thus resources are finite, especially energy resources like oil, and demand is outstrippin' this resource so war over oil is a gimme.

Wind and solar "flows" are finite an' cannot be increased. Add to this grim reality the fact that it takes energy to get energy--the deeper into the earth ya go to get the ore or oil or whatever resource, the more energy to get to it and to get the resource up to the surface-- until the energy cost for acquisition is greater than the energy that will be found. Stone age, here we come.


Well, mebbe not.

First, the primer doan take note of RENEWABLE energy sources. It doan allow none at all fer better efficiency in use of resources, and it doan give a nod to how humans usually figger out how to solve big problems--especially if ya can make a buck from it, like harnessin' ocean thermals and tidal energy.

Heck, iffin' sombody ain't thunk it up yet, I got an idea: Let's put giant magnifiers in the sky to magnify solar flows---we will think of SOMEthin'.

(What the world needs now is problem SOLVERS, not jes' problem analysts.)

But most of all, in the cartoon, the raw numbers is missin'. Looky, Ever hear that the sun is gonna go out one day? Anybody you know in a panic over that? Anybody screamin'
"WOE is us! The sun is dead! The black freeze is comin'!"

Nope--cause it ain't gonna happen fer a few more gazillion years.

I ain't no petroleum engineer, so I doan know when we's due to run out of oil. But I do know that geothermal techniques have improved vastly and untapped shale oil on this globe is estimated at 2.8 TRILLION barrels...and 1.5 trillion is the USA. See? Hey we may not even use all the oil on the planet afore we colonize Uranus and mine its desserts.

Point is simple, sweet chillen': Thangs is bad, B A D, but it ain't as hopeless as some of these websites portray it.

Mah view is that it is jes' as dangerous to over state a case, or to insist on tunnel vision rather than problem solving, as it is to be an ostrich wif' yore haid in the sand.

It might get really ugly, folks wearin' crocs and gunny sack dresses, but we will make it.

I has great faith in us as humans. Not in any one human, but all of us--we's made in the image of God, who is The Creator. Know what that means? It means we is CREATIVE too. I have faith in man's ability to creatively solve technical problems...

Solving problems of the heart? That takes faith of a different order.

We Will Make It

12 comments:

CHEF TROLL said...

Hmmmmm. Well, free Christian Capitalists have consistently solved problems creatively for 350 years or so.


But that's not ALL of human history. Not by a long shot.

And the percentage of the planet that is Free, Christian, and Capitalist is shrinking.

So, I ain't as optimistic as Aunty.

Boxer said...

Amen, Aunty! I see an economy that has 93% of the work force STILL employed. We still buy groceries, turn on our lights and buy clothes. Do I know what's going to happen next week? Next month? Hell no, but I do know this; I will survive.I won't starve and I won't lose my house. As I (quietly) prepare for a future that is blurry, I keep an eye on the past, the present AND the future. I told Mr. Boxer the other night that I'm not counting on the stimulus package to save my company... I WILL save my company. Troll says it's shrinking. OK. That just means there's room for it to expand.

(K9 gave me a book and it's my current manifesto!)

K9 said...

creativity will be our salvation.

that said, you CANNOT print fake money all day and expect that not to swim back around and bite ya firmly in the arse. i have more faith in oil sun and wind than i ever will in the US Government.

i, obviously, do believe that a massive CF is headed out way -a perfect storm of variables that came together *not by accident*

even if nothing bad was going to happen i would still redirect my energy to living more simply out of a big city. be in charge of some of my own food. i can still do art and most of the things i acknowledge as high standard of living.

i love dieoff.org and cluborlov and all the gloom and doom sites. i use it as entertainment. you know what i think? todays nutjob chicken little is tomorrows sage. look how prophets were treated in the bible.

still good to be alive! and im still over here making easter rabbits and paintings. ;-)


boxer! im glad you like that book i read it and thought: this is so perfect for where she is right now. cant wait to hear what ya did with crap-client.

Aunty Belle said...

yes yes yes....we will make it--an' I am NOT making the case that all is well, but that the BIG OIL segment on Dieoff.com is over-reaching, over catastrophizing the oil situation.

Chef-Troll,
I hears ya',true hope is from Christ.

Boxer Babe,
I jes' love yore spirit!! Youse got the right approach. Grow a graden, make good stuff, treat clients right--value yore friends and neighbors.


K9--

Dawgy, youse a stitch. Doom fer entertainment? Yeah--really, I got it --I mea the canary in the mine is = nutcase is the prophet--I ain't discountin' all the BIG trouble I DO THINK is comin', jes sayin' the segment on BIG OIL is short of the full truth about how to SOLVE it.

An' war aint genetic, it is a sociology problem not a genetic problem.


News is icky today..gag.

CHEF TROLL said...

I think Boxer-Babe and I actually agree. I just took a macro view and she went micro.

I don't claim that creativity is extinguished and progress is non-existent in societies that aren't free Christian and capitalistic.

I think creativity is stifled to varying degrees and progress is slower.

Boxer said...

I think anytime Troll calls me "Boxer Babe" I'll agree with anything he has to say.

moi said...

A lil' factoid: According to S.B., who actually works in the energy industry, the number of those cool wind turbines needed to become an effective alternative energy source for our entire country is so high, that they would take up virtually all of our empty space. Wonder how the environmentalists feel would about that?

K9 said...

what yucky news? anything in particular?

Aunty Belle said...

Troll-Man,

iffin' the recession-depression gits goin' wif a head of steam, lots of folks will rediscover religion.

Boxer-Babe,

oh yeah! Doan blame ya!

MOI,

git SB in heah to tell it like it is--ya doan see Aunty shillin' fer windmills--the one I put up in post is a beat up ole thang. Nope--I see oil as still havin' a good run afore we switch to hydrogen--or whatever.

K9 Pup,

heh...well, take yore pick--GDP off 6%, the S&P down, DJIA? DOWN. Another bank failed today (Nevada) and CITI prolly cain't survive more'n a few months. Unemployment up --over 10% in sunny Cal.

But I got seeds. Thas' my barter for the future.

Really do believe we will solve our problems --but first thang is to git gubmint off our chests.

K9 said...

WSJ had a great piece on obamas power grab today the title: the obama revolution:paid for by the people

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123569611695588763.html

very disturbing

then

club orlov's recent post had an interesting rebuttal to your thesis here. read the comment thread as well

over at asia times the mogambo guru has another howler -also cross posted at the daily reckoning with its own dark content


see why i havent posted on seattle yet? grrrrrrherhahaha im working on it. im having a little trouble with FOCUS

Aunty Belle said...

Dawgy Pup,

okay, yep I seen Orlov today--and the threads--digested the black swan stuff--it makes sense--partly. I love the turkey not gettin' the picture--howling hilarious. But, ya already knows Aunty ain't so mesmerized by the idea of infinite "progress."

To be biblical about it, I think we git a Tower of Babel thump ever so often in history--ya can call it a black swan iffin' ya prefer.

All the same, in terms of technology, despite Orlov's hyper illustrations we humans does solve problems which is why we ain't got open sewers and Bubonic Plague in our cities. It's why we can put a man on the moon when we want to--not that we have reason to-------

But my thang is this:

Does we know what to *DO* with our progress?

The human/pig-mama photo of past posts is mah icon fer this point. We have TOO much technology that is used fer ill---cloning fer example--frankenfoods---ya knows mah theme here.

I'se a heap less worriet fer techno applications to real time trouble like energy sources than I is POLITICAL applications of the techno we already has--mercy, that gives me the willies!

I'se off to check mumbo and Spengler. And WSJ.

K9 said...

agreed the cross pollination of man and beast (how about the spider DNA inserted into goat genes?) is apocalyptic inits scope of potential screw-ups and ethically and morally beyond comprehension.

however, i find the peak oil scenario to be credible. read last night all the problems associated with hydrogen infrastructure and storage. while dieoff.org is one of the fun sites you might find the more geek sites compelling

this one, which has been put together by an attorney, is very readible as he does what attorneys do: compiles sources and presents a case:

http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

aunty: listen here now. i am losing the pitch for obtaining financing for chickory: the mini farm. dont mess me up. grrrrrrherhahahahahaha